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The World Cup Semifinals Have Never Looked Like This — Zero Upsets, Exactly as Ranked

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By Sumi
Four teams left. Two stadiums. One very short week.

That was the single most sports-saturated weekend I can remember in this country — World Cup quarterfinals, Wimbledon finals, and the MLB All-Star festivities starting tonight. Here's where everything landed, and what this week looks like.

The Final Four

France dispatched Morocco 2-0 (Mbappé continues to look inevitable), and Spain edged Belgium 2-1. Saturday's two quarterfinals were just as dramatic: England beat Norway 2-1 in extra time. All eyes were on Erling Haaland going in, but the moment that decided it was his foul — a shove on an England player just before a corner, caught by VAR, which wiped out what would've been Norway's go-ahead goal. Jude Bellingham scored both England goals himself, including the extra-time winner. (I was watching Bellingham closely too, though if I'm honest it wasn't just the scoring — the guy is disgustingly handsome.)

Argentina beat Switzerland 3-1 in extra time — Mac Allister headed in a Messi corner, Switzerland equalized, Switzerland's Embolo got sent off for a dive that VAR caught, and Julián Álvarez then Lautaro Martínez finished it off in extra time. The "is this Messi's last World Cup" storyline lives on.

So the semifinals: France vs Spain, Tuesday 3PM ET in Dallas — a matchup so big most people assumed it was being saved for the final — and England vs Argentina, Wednesday 3PM ET in Atlanta.

Here's the stat that's actually wild: France, Spain, England, and Argentina — the four teams left — were FIFA's exact top four ranked teams heading into the tournament. This is the first time in World Cup history the pre-tournament top four swept straight through to the semifinals with zero upsets.

A word for this stage

Americans call the semifinals of any tournament the Final Four — a term that actually comes from March Madness, the college basketball tournament I once had to explain to Jinguk bracket-by-bracket. Soccer borrowed it seamlessly: four teams, two games, everything on the line.

Meanwhile, on the grass

Wimbledon wrapped Sunday: Jannik Sinner beat Alexander Zverev in four sets (6-7, 7-6, 6-3, 6-4) to win back-to-back Wimbledon titles. It was Zverev's first-ever Grand Slam final. We actually missed the final itself — but we caught the semifinal the day before, where Sinner beat Djokovic. Jinguk watched that match and predicted, correctly, that Sinner would take the title. His reasoning: "His game is steady, methodical. He's not swayed by emotion at all."

The part of the tournament where every match ends someone's summer.


What Jinguk thought

Jinguk's officially switched allegiances — he's backing France now, not Spain, because he thinks Mbappé has earned it with how he's played this tournament. (I've had my own reason for rooting for Mbappé all along, and the reason is explained in my first World Cup post 😅)

The week ahead

Tuesday and Wednesday: semifinals. Saturday: third-place match in Miami. Sunday: the final — at MetLife Stadium, which deserves its own post, because the biggest game on Earth is happening a river away from us. More on that Thursday.

Who's your final four pick — and are you brave enough to put it in writing before Tuesday? Tell me in the comments, and subscribe so you don't miss the final-week posts.

📌 Resources

New to tournament brackets? Start here → What Is a "Bracket" Anyway?

Full match schedule → FIFA World Cup 2026 official site


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